Every September somebody at a Kitchener barbecue says they heard it’s going to be a mild winter, so they’ll sort out snow clearing later. Usually in December. Usually on the phone, during a storm, sounding stressed.
This year the barbecue rumour actually has something behind it. It just doesn’t mean what people think it means.
What the forecasters are saying
The Weather Network’s fall outlook this August, built around a strong El Nino pattern, has two halves that pull in opposite directions for Ontario.
The first half: in strong El Nino years, the first snowfall has historically arrived around November 3 instead of the usual November 11, about eight days earlier than normal. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center put the odds of a very strong El Nino this fall and winter above 90% in its own August advisory.
The second half: the cold breaks down through the rest of the season, with forecasters pointing to a milder, often drier winter overall, and Ontario specifically flagged for the awkward near-freezing mix, rain, wet snow, freezing rain and localized squalls, rather than a clean, cold, snowy stretch.
So the headline “mild winter” is fair. The conclusion people draw from it, that nothing will happen until January, isn’t. An early first snow inside a mild season is a completely normal combination, and it’s the one being flagged this year.
Forecasts are forecasts, and a historical average is not a date on a calendar. We don’t run the business on them and neither should you. What they’re useful for is deciding what to do in October, and on that they’re pretty clear.
Why the first snowfall is the one that matters
Here’s what actually happens on the first real snow of the season in Kitchener and Waterloo. The phone starts early, and a lot of the callers have never booked snow clearing before. Sorting out who does your driveway, at what trigger, for what price, is not a conversation anybody enjoys having at 6 a.m. with 10 cm on the ground.
There’s also a practical reason to decide before the snow flies rather than during it. Booking in October means you can measure the driveway properly, pick the right size, and ask questions without a plow already idling at the curb. If the first snow lands on November 3, as it historically has in strong El Nino years, that calm window is already gone by the time you’re thinking about snow.
So October is when the decision is cheap and unhurried. November is when it’s neither.
What our season runs on
Our Winter Plans run November 1 to April 15. That start date is set by the calendar, not by the forecast, which is exactly the point. If the first snow lands on November 3, the plan is already live.
The plan is unlimited clearings at the 5 cm trigger, which we pulled apart in what a 5 cm trigger means, usually within 12 hours of the snow stopping, plus unlimited ice control after freezing rain or light snow. It covers the driveway, the front path to your door, the city sidewalk in front of your home, and standard rock salt on the driveway.
Season prices (Winter Plan Standard), pre-HST with 13% HST added as its own line:
- 1 car driveway $769.36
- 1.5 car $926.11
- 2 car $997.36
- 2.5 car $1,082.86
- 3 car $1,225.36
- 3.5 car $1,382.11
- 4 car $1,538.86
Bigger than a 4 car driveway? A Winter plan still covers your whole season, priced by size, or call or text 226-336-2077.
Prefer to pay per storm? Per-visit clearing starts at $53.99 for a 1 car driveway and runs to $107.99 for a 4 car, and up to $237.99 for a 10 car, both plus HST, same trigger, same inclusions. The full list is on the pricing page. Want a salt choice and faster clearing bundled in by tier instead? See our Winter plans.
Pay for the season up front and it’s one price, no invoices to track through the winter.
The part of a mild winter nobody looks forward to
A milder December doesn’t mean less work. It often means messier work.
When temperatures sit near zero instead of well below it, you get the awkward stuff: wet heavy snow, rain that turns to ice overnight, a thaw that puts water on the driveway followed by a freeze that turns it into a rink. Salt does less in those conditions than people expect, and freezing rain sits outside a snow trigger entirely because there’s no accumulation to measure.
That’s the honest limit of any snow contract, ours included. Salting reduces ice, but it can’t fully remove it in extreme cold or freezing rain. Which is why Winter Plan Standard includes ice control as unlimited rather than as a per-event charge. A freeze-thaw winter is the kind where you use it.
What to do in the next few weeks
Three things, none of them complicated:
- Measure your driveway in car widths. Not square footage, not metres. One car, two cars, and whether there’s an extra half width beside it. That’s how the pricing works.
- Decide who’s responsible for the sidewalk. In Kitchener, clearing the sidewalk to bare pavement within 24 hours is on the property owner, and we went through that rule in the 24-hour sidewalk rule. Our snow products include it.
- Decide if you want a Winter Plan before the season starts. It’s one payment for the whole winter, driveway sized, and you book it the same way as per-visit clearing.
While you’re out there, clear the driveway of anything that shouldn’t meet a plow blade: hoses, extension cords, kids’ toys, planters, and the solar lights along the edge. And keep vehicles off the driveway on clearing days, because a car in the way turns a five-minute job into a shape we can’t clear properly.
Questions people are asking this month
If the winter is mild, can I just skip a Winter Plan and pay per storm?
You can, and for some driveways that’s the right call. We worked the arithmetic through in package or per visit, including the number we won’t invent, which is how many storms a winter brings.
Does a Winter Plan start early if snow comes in October?
The plan runs November 1 to April 15. An October snowfall would be a per-visit job.
What happens in an unusually heavy winter on a prepaid season?
Your fixed season price includes unlimited qualifying clearings from November 1 to April 15. An unusually heavy winter does not add clearing charges to your seasonal plan.
Can I cancel if I change my mind?
Yes. Cancel any time with 14 days’ notice, you only pay for visits completed, and a prepaid season is refunded for the unused portion.
Sort it while it’s still shirt sleeves out
Call or text 226-336-2077 or send your address through the contact page, and we’ll size your driveway and give you the number before you commit to anything.
We work Kitchener and Waterloo with Mannheim at the edge, and we don’t cover Cambridge. Boundaries are on the service area page, the service details are on the snow clearing page, neighbourhood specifics are on the Kitchener and Waterloo pages, and more answers are on the FAQ.
Pink is the new green.
